US November CPI Report - Below Expectations Amid Shutdown Aftermath

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-over-year, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on December 18, 2025. This figure came in lower than the 3.1% forecast by experts polled by Reuters. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also showed a slower-than-expected increase of 2.6% year-over-year, falling below market projections.

Detailed Inflation Breakdown

Key Drivers: The primary contributors to the overall increase in consumer prices were identified as the food, housing, and energy sectors.

Food:

• Food prices collectively increased by 2.6% year-over-year.
• The food-at-home index saw a 1.9% rise compared to the previous year.
• The food-away-from-home index experienced a higher increase of 3.7% over the same period.

Housing:

• The housing index, which accounts for over one-third of the total CPI weighting, climbed by 3.0%.

Energy:

• The energy index recorded a 4.2% increase year-over-year.
• Gasoline prices saw an annual rise of 0.9%.
• The electricity index increased by 6.9% over the past 12 months.
• The natural gas index posted a significant 9.1% surge.

Other Noteworthy Increases: The BLS also highlighted substantial annual increases in other indices:

• Healthcare: 2.9%
• Furniture and Appliances: 4.6%
• Recreation: 1.8%
• Used Cars and Trucks: 3.6%

Context and Contributing Factors

Impact of Government Shutdown:

• This November CPI report was the first inflation indicator released following the prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown.
• The October CPI report had been canceled due to the effects of the shutdown.
• The November CPI report itself contained limited month-over-month comparison data due to difficulties in collecting October's information during the shutdown.
• For reference, the CPI in September had risen by 2.9% year-over-year.

Reason for Lower-than-Expected Figures:

• Reuters suggested that the lower-than-anticipated increase in the CPI could be attributed to a technical factor: a delay in data collection by the BLS. This delay reportedly pushed the data gathering period towards the end of the month, coinciding with various holiday discount events, which may have skewed the reported price levels downwards.

Future Economic Outlook

Anticipated Acceleration due to Tariffs:

• Economists are forecasting an acceleration in inflation for December, largely due to the ongoing impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
• Samuel Tombs, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, calculated that by September, approximately 40% of the imposed tariffs had already been passed on to consumers. He anticipates this percentage to gradually rise to 70% by March before stabilizing.

Related Event

Federal Shutdown and Food Security: On October 31, 2025, several weeks into the U.S. federal government shutdown, volunteers were captured preparing food carts at an emergency food bank in Commerce City, Colorado. This imagery underscores the broader social and economic strains experienced during the period of government inactivity.