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No Santa Rally, Just a Santa Slide

Dec 18, 20251,6661

The Brutality of Relentless DeclinesWhen you've been in the market long enough,you realize that while bear markets are common,the specific type you're describing – the relentless,daily grind down,where every morning feels like a countdown to more red – i...

BLIND STORY

No Santa Rally, Just a Santa Slide

Created at Dec 18, 2025 05:46:10 12.**.211.18 1,667 1 0

The Brutality of Relentless Declines

When you've been in the market long enough, you realize that while bear markets are common, the specific type you're describing – the relentless, daily grind down, where every morning feels like a countdown to more red – is a particularly brutal beast. It's different from a volatile correction with bounces; this is an almost suffocating downward momentum. The psychological toll of waking up day after day to see your portfolio shrinking, with no relief in sight, is immense and unique to these periods.

Historical Context and My Gut Feeling on Duration

Thinking back to the various downturns I've weathered – the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, even the sharp, albeit brief, COVID panic of early 2020 – there were definitely periods within those broader bear markets that felt exactly like this current 'daily drop' scenario.

My '뇌피셜' (Gut Feeling) on the relentless daily drop phase: The truly, intensely relentless daily drops, where the market consistently loses ground day after day with very few, if any, meaningful green days, rarely last beyond a few weeks to a couple of months at their most acute. We're talking about the phase where panic is palpable, momentum is overwhelmingly negative, and there's a widespread sense of despair. If this kind of daily, consistent downward pressure were to last much longer, say, three months or more without any significant relief bounces, it would be an extraordinarily rare event, likely signaling a systemic breakdown on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.
Distinction between 'daily drop phase' and 'full bear market': It's crucial to distinguish this intense 'daily drop' phase from the overall bear market. A full bear market (defined as a 20%+ drop from highs) can easily last 6 months to 1.5-2 years, or even longer in some cases. However, the period of daily, uninterrupted declines is usually a compressed, painful segment within that broader bear market. It's the sharp, acute shock that leads to capitulation. Once that specific phase is over, the market might still be in a bear market, but it usually transitions into a more volatile, choppy period with bear market rallies and further drops, rather than simply bleeding out every single day.

Factors Influencing the End of Daily Drops

What usually stops these unrelenting daily declines in their tracks, based on experience?

Extreme Capitulation: Eventually, everyone who needs to sell or wants to sell in a panic has done so. The selling pressure simply dries up, even if there's no good news. This often coincides with very high trading volumes on down days, signaling a washout.
Significant Policy Intervention: Central banks or governments stepping in with decisive measures (e.g., interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, fiscal stimulus) can provide a powerful psychological and practical circuit breaker.
Unexpected Positive Catalysts: Sometimes, an unexpected piece of good news, a breakthrough, or a resolution to a perceived crisis can shift sentiment dramatically, albeit often temporarily.
Valuation Extremes: At some point, assets become so cheap that long-term investors or institutions start quietly accumulating, providing a floor even if the news flow remains negative.

Investor Psychology During These Periods

These are, without a doubt, the most challenging times emotionally for investors. The constant barrage of negative news and the visual confirmation of losses can lead to extreme fatigue and the overwhelming urge to just "make it stop" by selling everything. It's in these brutal phases that convictions are truly tested. Paradoxically, history often shows that the point of maximum despair during the daily grind is often closer to a significant market bottom than many realize, even if it's not the ultimate bottom.

The Eventual Turning Point

You rarely get a clear "all clear" signal. The end of the relentless daily drops often comes not with a bang, but either a whimper (the market just stops falling sharply every day and starts moving sideways) or a massive washout day followed by a surprisingly strong bounce (a "bear market rally"). The market then attempts to find its footing, often experiencing significant volatility before a more sustained recovery takes hold.

Important Caveat

Again, this is purely anecdotal and based on having witnessed a few cycles play out. Every downturn is unique, driven by different factors, and unfolds in its own way. This is definitely '뇌피셜' and should not be taken as financial advice or a prediction, but rather a sharing of perceived patterns from past experiences.

Comments 1

133.**.145.51 Dec 18, 2025 05:49:27

It looks like Santa got into a traffic accident or something on the snowy road while he was on his way...